Fourth Quarter - 2011
|
Stocks (Total Return): |
Closing Price |
Fourth Quarter |
1 Year |
3 Years (Annualized) |
5 Years (Annualized) |
|
Dow Jones Industrial Average |
12218 |
12.7% |
8.4% |
14.8% |
2.4% |
|
Standard & Poor 500 Index |
1258 |
11.7% |
2.1% |
14.0% |
-0.3% |
|
Bonds (Total Return): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index |
|
0.7% |
6.5% |
3.8% |
6.3% |
|
(formerly Lehman Aggregate Bond Index) |
|||||
|
(Sources: FT Interactive Data, Thomson Baseline, and WSJ; Past performance is not indicative of future results.) |
|||||
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) finished the year
strongly at 12,218 increasing 12.7% in the fourth quarter and 8.4% for the full
year, including dividends. After peaking
at 12,811 in April, the DJIA fell 17% to 10,655 in October. The Federal Reserve
Board’s subsequent efforts to support the economy and central bank intervention
in Europe boosted investor confidence resulting in a positive year for key US
equity market indices.
As a leading indicator, the strong fourth quarter for US equity
markets suggests the possibility of continuing economic recovery domestically. Consensus
among economists is that gross domestic product (GDP) will grow approximately 2%
in 2012 comparing favorably with stagnant European economies. Unemployment in
the US has declined slightly to 8.9%. Natural gas is an abundant energy source at
its lowest price level in two years which may contribute to cost efficiencies
for utilities and manufacturers. Gold rose 10.2% to $1,566 in 2011 reflecting
persistent U.S. dollar weakness.
Individual and corporate balance sheets have improved during
the last few years. With a stronger private sector, the economy has a higher
probability of recovery when consumer spending increases. Meanwhile, the public
sector is experiencing pressure from taxpayers, creditors and trading partners
to balance budgets and contain spending. It is tempting to become optimistic
about the beneficial effects on the economy of a stronger private sector;
however, the public sector’s unavoidable choice of fiscal restraint may have a
tempering effect on economic growth.
Within the DJIA, McDonalds (MCD) rose 31% and IBM (IBM) rose
25% in 2011. ExxonMobil, Johnson & Johnson and McDonalds have increased
their dividends for more than twenty-five consecutive years. At Penobscot, we
favor dividend growth over high dividend yield because dividend growth is the
result of earnings growth. The trailing price to earnings multiple (P/E) of
13.2 for the DJIA is a reasonable valuation considering the many DJIA companies
that are able to produce consistent earnings and dividend growth in this
challenging economic environment. Our commitment to these high quality dividend
paying growth stocks was rewarded in 2011, and if the economy continues to benefit
from a stronger and more confident consumer, the coming year may be another rewarding
year for investors as well.
Thank you for your continued confidence in Penobscot as your investment advisor, and we hope you enjoy a happy and healthy new year.